Saturday, January 23, 2010

Dedicated to all Ghousians, with love

First published in daily Greater Kashmir – 23 January 2010

4 Idiots

Of fuzzy dreams, degrees and DNA

By: Arjimand Hussain Talib

‘3 Idiots’ movie is a soul stirrer. It is nostalgic. The reason it seems so popular is that everyone could somehow relate himself or herself to its characters. It makes you laugh, and brings tears too. It has also a potential to shatter.

The movie instantly took me to our friend-circle’s life in the Ghousia Engineering College in Bangalore. It brought back the memories of the college days’ muddle of philosophy and maths. Muddle of the constant clash of parental aspirations and the basic DNA. Sometimes idealism and realism also clashed.

‘3 Idiots’ reflects a reality of our times – the constant struggle in our career life – caught, as ever, in the web of assumed aspirations and fuzzy dreams. The web of who parents dream their children to be. And how children think of and see themselves to be.

Ghousia Engineering College represented the same irony. It was also a place full of aspiring and reluctant engineers. And there were certain distinct types: Those who had come by choice. Those who had demanded to be there. Those who were simply kicked out (the-threat-to-family-and-world-peace-type). Some out of them were aborted-martyrs-in-the-making. And those who were made to take up engineering just because their parents wanted them to.

Ghousia College was a world apart. It was called the Third World of Bangalore - for its orthodoxy, stringent hostel life and discipline. Until we were there, it was simply out of bounds for the women species. It was not a co-ed college. There were not even women teachers. But the college’s ragging culture was depressing, and even terrorising.

Students from other colleges envied it for three reasons: One was its quality cricket team, second was its excellent academic standards and results, and third was its notorious civility (or a lack of it, rather). There was a dogma about this college: the day women enter there, it would be more civilised, and its students better cultured. We didn’t live in the college to see that. So it is hard to say how the future actually shaped.

Let me come back to the types of would-be engineers the college housed. And their fate. To begin with, let me talk of the room I lived in - 302. It had four guys – who would call themselves ARROW group – a rough acronym of their names. Room 302 had a label on its door, which read – ARROW Citadel.

The room housed one aspiring engineer, one kick-out type; one reluctant one and the fourth one was no-label type. The kick-out type was a real engineering genius out of the four. He never took more than four days before exams to read a whole subject. I mean ‘read.’ He hardly ever used paper for rough work or do calculations or practise solving problems. We could never be sure why the no-label type was there. The reluctant engineer spent most of his time in the library reading non-engineering stuff – news magazines and newspapers. Shockingly, even during exam days. He too, like the other three, did well in the exams.

But Room 302 had one thing in common – it had an inkling of what the peers saw as a ‘dangerously revolutionary’ spirit. It was always in the eye of attention. And even suspicion.

When the U.S. first attacked Iraq, it was from Room 302 that the plan of first-ever anti-US student demonstration in Karnataka state was made. American and Israeli flags to be burnt were designed there. Logistics were finalised there.

The room was also popular for running BBC Urdu news every night for public audience. That was the time when radio was the only credible source of information. Out of the four, the ‘no-label’ type never really took interest in all those activities, but he made it a point to be an actively passive participant in every such activity. For ‘political reasons’, rather.

Sitting under the open sky on a moon-lit night on the hostel terrace, the four of us would often talk about meeting after ten years and see where each one of us ended. What a co-incidence, it is exact ten years since we bade good bye to the college!

The discussions over aptitude, inclination, IQ and EQ are over. We live in a different age. All four of us are at four different places, doing very different four things. There is not even a single common thread in the work we do. The line between compulsions and aspirations has got blurred. But somehow – amazingly and unbelievably - all four of us ended up doing what we craved for. Thanks to Internet and Facebook, we all remain in touch.

Sadly, the engineering genius – who would spend not more than 3 days to study a complete subject – didn’t end up in a centre of excellence or fetch a six-figure salary. The no-label type, who didn’t really get good marks, today works in a developed country, and is reportedly doing well. The real aspiring engineer is a proper engineer, serving J&K government. He analyses load patterns at a big receiving station, and decides when to shed the load and when not to do it.

Times have changed, but yet not too much. We still live in times which see aspiration tags being put on children at their birth time. Tags which generally reflect parents’ own desires, biases and calculations.

So how do we end up what we live? By destiny? By chance? By choice? Or a mixture of these?

The fact is that there are no rules here. Nothing is in black and white. There are no recipes for success or failure. No recipes for fulfilling aspirations. In the very few constants of life there are huge number of variables – like destiny and time – which change the whole equations.

The possibilities of time, fate, spirituality and social conditioning in influencing our lives are infinite. The predictability quotient is generally an iota. We human beings and the conditions we live in are complex, too complex for constants to determine the final result.

And one fine day the meaninglessness quotient of the worldly pursuits and cravings laughs at us with vengeance. It laughs at our survival frenzy, our quest for excellence and perfection – all that ultimately doesn’t last. Time races. And aspirations wither.

And then comes the question of religion again, which makes sense of every absurdity around. To give life its ultimate meaning. Making us realise the futility of the timelessness of time.

Today, my wife and I often promise to each other that we would let our daughter be what she aspires to be. She is exactly one year old now.

But let me confess something honestly now. Sometimes, when I close my eyes, I greatly enjoy seeing my daughter in certain frames – frames which suit my own vision, biases and some unfulfilled dreams. The idea of making her take a career of her choice looks risky and frightening. I haven’t said this to my wife so far. That is the dose of reality amidst the philosophy and mathematics of life. Life is, perhaps, just like that. We all are idiots!

Feedback at Arjimand@greaterkashmir.com

Kashmir: Understanding Religious Radicalisation

By: Arjimand Hussain

(First published in Monthly Epilogue Magazine, Jammu)

Background:

Kashmir Valley has often been celebrated as one of the living ideals of syncretic traditions, where various religious beliefs have peacefully co-existed and flourished side by side since centuries. However, the Valley’s history has also witnessed periods when all major religions have competed for political and social supremacy. Religion has also been employed as an instrument for political domination, both by political and religious leaders and institutions. The political upheaval in the post-1930s’ period has often witnessed periods of religious radicalisation, seeking to redefine and set Kashmir’s political agenda. However, this period has also witnessed neutralisation of the forces that have spearheaded radicalisation movements at the first place. Such neutralisation has happened as a natural consequence and because of certain deliberate State actions as well.

Today, greater levels of education among Kashmiris are working both ways. At one plane they are creating a critical mass of people who are more willing to understand, respect and co-exist with people of other faiths. At another plane, greater exposure to global political developments, mainly in places like the Middle East, Iraq and Afghanistan, evokes sentiments of radicalisation and aversion to peaceful co-existence with other religions. For another section of the population, religion remains a key instrument in furthering the political agenda, seeking restoration of Kashmir’s political rights. For this segment, secular democratic politics has failed in the realisation of the goal of Kashmir’s right to self determination. Perusal of such politics to them has also meant India’s consolidation of its political hold over Kashmir.

Today, there are two facets of the debate on religious radicalisation in Kashmir. At one level, the trends of organised radicalisation are on a clear decline. The decimation of the structures and cadre of organisations like the once-influential Jamaat-i-Islami and its off shoot organisations during the last twenty years has seen a systematic decline in the trend of organised political radicalisation.

On the other hand, events like the Amarnath Land Controversy of 2008 have served to radicalise some sections of Kashmir’s youth, who see such developments as a clear manifestation of furthering the ‘Hindu India’s religious domination of Kashmir’ and ‘dilution of its overwhelmingly Muslim character’. However, this phenomenon is largely isolated and not at a mass or organised scale.

I. Post-colonial political entities and religious make-up:

The age of colonisation changed the face of the world in many ways. The adventures of drawing boundaries on maps – creating political entities in disregard to ethnic, national, religious and geographical considerations – has created a world often based on unnatural political and identity considerations. In the post-colonial period, Africa got countries, dividing tribes and ethnicities, which even to this day do not recognise country-boundaries. The Arab world, bound by a common culture, language and religion, got divided into several ‘nation-states’. The Indian sub-continent’s reorganisation was far from a perfect project. Much of the Far East lost its original shape once the western colonizers left.

History, like in most of the post-colonial world, has given birth to a political and geographical entity in the shape of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) state which is far from perfect. The State’s present geographical and political make up is a reflection of the same historical accidents, rooted in colonial imagination of the post-colonial borders. The Treaty of Amritsar compounded that historical accident. And then during the subsequent decades of autocratic Dogra Maharaha rule over the majority Muslim population and the division of the State gave birth to a complex and chaotic polity.

II. ‘Demographic Change’ and Religious Radicalisation:

The debate on religious demography has been a major issue in J&K State, which has been strengthening the notion of an ‘engineered demographic change’ being carried out to change Kashmir’s majority Muslim character. This issue is a highly emotive one – something which, in the first place, fuelled the agitation against the Amarnath Land Transfer in Kashmir in 2008. This issue continues to breed religious radicalism in Kashmir. Certain official statistical data reinforce this perception.

As per the 1941 census, the total Muslim population of J&K State constituted 72.41 per cent of the total population, while as the Hindu population was 25.01 per cent (Out of a total population of 2946728). The Muslim composition was reported reduced in 1961 Census at 68.30 per cent as against an increased 28.45 per cent that of Hindus (of the reported total population of 3560976). The trend has been continuing: in 1971 Census, the Muslim population was again reported to have declined to 65.85 per cent, while as the Hindu population had grown to 30.42 per cent (out of the total population of 4616632). In 1981 Census, for the total population of 5987389, the Hindu population was again reported to have risen to 32.24 per cent, while the Muslim population was reported to have reduced to 64.19 per cent. This trend has been found to fuel a sense of insecurity and siege among Kashmiri Muslims.

According to Census figures, quoted in an article in Frontline newsmagazine in October, 2000, by Praveen Swami; in Doda district the Hindu population had grown by 47.23 per cent between 1971 and 1981 but that of Muslims by only 11.97 per cent. In Udhampur, the figures for the same period were 45 per cent against 6.35 per cent. In Rajouri Hindu population grew by 47.72 per cent against 33.01 per cent of Muslims. The Hindu population of Kathua was reported to have grown by 39.31 per cent while the Muslim population had “fallen” by 14.57 per cent. In Jammu district Hindu population was reported to have “grown” by 36.14 per cent while the Muslim population had “fallen” by 29.98 per cent. This trend in religious demography remains the principal reason for the isolated trends of radicalisation among certain groups of Muslims even in the Jammu region.

III. Political and economic ‘discrimination’: Fuelling religious radicalisation:

The three regions of the Jammu & Kashmir State – Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh – continue to nurse their own feelings of neglect and discrimination by one another. This feeling and perception have served to sharpen both regional and religious divides. One of the spin offs of this feeling has been religious radicalisation, creation of political and religious platforms which are exclusive in nature and share a common aversion to accommodation and inclusiveness. The pattern of political representation in the State Assembly and local municipal bodies in the cities of Srinagar, Jammu and Leh symbolises this divide and pattern.

At present, what breeds regional divisions, which eventually transform into religious radicalisation, is the disproportionate representation of Kashmiri Muslims in government services and the bureaucracy in the state at their disadvantage. In Kashmir, there is a growing feeling that disproportionately high representation of the Jammu and Ladakh regions in the government administrative recruitments, and Kashmiri Muslim exclusion from key decision making structures, is in line with the Kashmir region’s political disempowerment.
The contention of regional imbalances in J&K State goes back to several decades. It was way back in 1961 that the G. M. Sadiq government was advised by New Delhi to appoint a commission to look into Jammu’s grievances of discrimination. What followed was P. B. Gajendragadkar Commission. There is no secret in that the commission’s recommendations were politically influenced. One of its core recommendations was the creation of special administrative structures like Regional Development Boards. In Srinagar, most of the recommendations were received with alarm, but New Delhi used its influence to ensure they were taken seriously.
In 1965, Dr. Karan Singh, went a step further by proposing that J&K be ‘reorganized’ on linguistic (communal) lines, and Jammu be merged with Himachal Pradesh. Then, this demand was viewed as an extreme thought both in New Delhi and Srinagar. The idea died down on its own.

In 1978, Jammu’s sense of discrimination took a violent turn when riots broke out in Jammu and Poonch cities. That was the time when certain government recruitments were seen to be unevenly in favour of the Kashmir region. Soon the violence got little nasty, targeting a particular ethnic group. In the preventive police action, about eighteen people were killed. The then chief minister, Sheikh Abdullah, felt the political heat unbearable and announced setting up of yet another commission to inquire the grievances of discrimination. This time round the commission was headed by a retired Chief Justice, S. M. Sikri. The Sikri Commission, among other things, recommended creation of a State Development Board chaired by the Chief Minister. That never happened.

Since the 80s, almost all State government departments and agencies have been bifurcated or trifurcated. State-level posts were replaced by division and province-level posts. The reservation for socially backward classes and ethnic groups created further social and political divisions.

Ladakh region, for all practical reasons, became a state within a state. But it is important to recognise that the region’s separatist tendencies have their roots in early 1949 when its rulers proposed Ladakh’s direct incorporation into the Indian Union.

It is true that some rulers from the Kashmir region in the past have not acted too sensitively to the needs and aspirations of some of the people of Jammu and Ladakh. However, it is also true that Jammu and Ladakh regions always have had New Delhi’s political and administrative favours on their side. Among Kashmir’s civil society and political leadership, New Delhi’s such proximity and special favours to Jammu and Ladakh have bred feelings of psychological and political siege. That feeling is reinforced with each passing day.

IV. Delimitation of Assembly Constituencies:

Since many years, delimitation of the existing Assembly constituencies is being vociferously advocated by parties like the Congress, BJP, Jammu State Morcha and the Panthers Party in Jammu. They argue that Jammu region is “under-represented” in the State Assembly – with Kashmir having 46 Assembly constituencies and Jammu 37.

In April 2002 that the J&K Legislative Assembly adopted an amendment to the Jammu and Kashmir Constitution freezing any delimitation exercise till 2026. The Election Commission in 2008 also made it clear that there will be no delimitation of electoral constituencies in J&K before 2026.

Sadly, most of the political parties in J&K see the delimitation issue from narrow political prisms, rather than identity and rights. When the Congress Party fought the 2001 Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir, its election manifesto promised a Delimitation Commission – meaning a commission would be set up in the State through a constitutional amendment to hammer out new electoral constituencies based on the 2001 census.

For demystifying the delimitation debate, it is important to analyse the demographic data of the State. As per the 2001 census figures, the population in Kashmir province is 54.76 lakh and that in Jammu is 44.3 lakh. Jammu’s population includes around 1.5 lakh Kashmiri Pandits, who are enrolled as voters in Kashmir, not in Jammu. As such Kashmir has around 1.3 million people more than Jammu if we include Kashmiri Pandits in the Valley population.

There are ample examples to substantiate this argument. Jammu and Kashmir’s chief electoral officer B.R. Sharma recently made a significant statement when he said that the latest revised electoral rolls show that the number of voters in Kashmir is 32 lakh and that in Jammu around 30 lakh. In 11 Assembly segments in Jammu, 94,000 bogus voters were found and deleted. It was, however, not explained why Kashmir, despite having nearly 1.3 million people more than
Jammu, had only about 2 lakh more voters.

It is common knowledge that an unspecified number of eligible voters in Kashmir are not registered. It happens either due to their disinterest in the democratic process or due to administrative lethargy. Be whatever, by a modest estimate no less than a million voters of Kashmir are missing from the electoral rolls, even if one takes 2001 census figures as the base line data.

There is no doubt in that all primary data is collected by the local members of local government administration but there are many missing links between the Census Department and government man power in terms of co-ordination, training, geographical coverage, logistics and data consolidation. After data collection, all compilation and analysis takes place at the central level.

Basically, as per J&K's Constitution, census should have been a State subject. It is quite surprising that there is not a single Muslim member in the Task Force on Quality Assurance, which is responsible for the final clearance of census data of J&K. Even more surprisingly, J&K census department has almost no role in the analysis and validation part. The problem is that data processing includes what the Census Department calls the process of "internal consistency, comparison with similar data in the past and also validation with likewise data." And it is here where the problem lies. The trend of demographics having been established during the past census operations in J&K is reflected in almost every new census.

V. Decimation of the Jamaat-i-Islami:

The decimation of one of Kashmir’s main religious political parties - the Jamaat-i-Islami – during the insurgency era has worked the ways. On the one hand, some of its cadres’ embrace of insurgency, and eventual neutralisation saw a significant erosion of its political structure. On the other hand, the erosion of its cadre base and grassroots presence gave a fillip to the emergence of other religious groups like the Jamiat-i-Ahlihadees. All this has two ramifications for Kashmir. There is a thought which sees the political ideology of groups like the Jamaat-i-Islami more accommodative than the groups like the Jamiat-i-Ahlihadees. To another thought the decimation of Jamaat-i-Islami has sealed its capacity to create another grassroots base and student mobilisation in a near future.

Post 9/11, most of the cross-LoC radical political affiliations and insurgent networks have got snapped. Many of such networks like mainly consisting of Lashkar-i-Taiba, Jaish-i-Muhammad and other such organisations and their over ground offshoots had started importing ideologies which were mostly alien to Kashmir in the past.

VI. The Kashmiri Pandit factor:

Generally, the Kashmiri Pandits have been seen as a community which has remained wedded to the syncretic traditions of Kashmir. They have also been successful in a large measure in insulating their religious movements and discourse from the radical Hindutva forces of mainland India. However, over the last few decades, the emergence of radical Kashmiri Pandit groups, like Panun Kashmir, which espouses radical political and religious ideologies, has changed the perceptions about this community. The group’s political ambition of creating an isolated and separate homeland within Kashmir Valley remains a radical agenda, which has the potential of stirring reactionary radical responses from Kashmir. This agenda also serves to draw parallels with the Palestinian issue, making the Kashmir’s political question attain increasingly religious overtures. Any further delay in honourable and respectable return of the Kashmiri Pandits to their original homes and their assimilation with the majority Muslim community holds the potential for further radicalisation among both the communities, fuelled by reactions and counter reactions.

VII. The Sangh Parivar factor:

The patronage that certain religious communities in Jammu & Kashmir have enjoyed from radical religious groups like the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh (RSS), the Bajrang Dal, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) etc. has also served to radicalise certain sections among the Hindu community. This patronage has also created reactionary forces among Muslims in the Kashmir Valley. Fluelling of regional separatist tendencies has automatically served religious radicalisation.

In March 2001, the Akhil Bharatiya Pratinidhi Sabha of the RSS at Delhi has already resolved to support the agitations in Jammu and Ladakh for separate statehood and union territory status. The RSS Resolution on J&K, passed at Kukukshetra on June 30, 2002, apart from expressing solidarity with all non-Muslim and non-Kashmiri speaking ethnic groups’ “struggles of assertion”, also states, “This resolution is the best way to abolish the divisive article 370, separate citizenship for State subjects, separate flag, and separate constitution for J&K. It is also the best way to stop lakhs of Pakistanis from settling in J&K through the Resettlement Act.” RSS’ Uttar Kshetra Sangha, Jitender Veer Gupta’s blue print for the “or-organisation” offers another interesting insight into this.

VIII. Growth of Wahabi Ideology:

With the increasing unpopularity of certain practices of Kashmiri Muslims who identify themselves with the Hanafi school of thought, mainly the practices around the Sufi shrines, Wahabi ideology is gaining ground in Kashmir. Mosques which would traditionally be run by people of Hanafi thought, highly influenced by the Sufi ways of religious practices, are increasingly being overtaken by Wahabi ideologues. This is happening not only in Kashmir’s countryside but in Srinagar city as well, including the Old city – considered a strong bastion of Hanafi Islamic thought. Although this transition does not necessarily mean outright religious radicalisation, however, it leaves scope for transformation which over a period of time attains a degree of radicalisation – both social and political.

On the other hand, the Jamiat-i-Ahlihadees’s plan of establishing an Islamic University in Srinagar is seen as a direct response to the Mata Vaishno Devi University established in Jammu by a particular school of Hindu thought.

IX. The Madrasa Phenomenon:

Although there is a clear growth in the number and influence of Islamic madrasas (schools) in Kashmir, yet the fact remains that they are mostly politically passive. The emphasis of the educational curriculum in these madrasas is mostly on the teachings of the Quran andHadith (The traditions of the Prophet of Islam). An examination of the sample trends in these madrasas suggests that their proliferation does not necessarily translate into religious radicalisation, given the nature of their curriculum that generally focuses on individual reformation rather than political Islam seeking political domination. A survey undertaken by the J&K Police in 2007 has revealed that there is not a single case of any madrasa in Kashmir having produced a militant.

X. Extra constitutional laws and curbing peaceful political dissent:

Excessive reliance on law and order instruments in containing political dissent has also contributed in the growth of religious radicalisation in Kashmir. The use of extra constitutional laws like the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), the Public Safety Act (PSA), the Disturbed Areas Act, etc. only fuel political discontent – which often strays into religious radicalisation.

The ramifications of New Delhi’s failure of meaningful political engagement with secular political groups like the JKLF are well known. Despite renunciation of the armed struggle, groups like the JKLF could not translate their bargaining power into any political achievement strengthened the forces which exhort religious radicalisation as the only means in achieving Kashmir’s political objectives.

As generally the Kashmiri youth have renounced the armed path in achieving their political goals, there is a greater emphasis on street and Internet mobilisation. A cursory observation of the Internet networking sites makes it clear that this generation sees juxtaposition of militarisation, political domination with religiosity as an attack on Kashmir distinct political identity and religious character.

Imposition of the Section 144, forbidding right to assembly, has become a part of Kashmir’s life. Illegal undeclared curfews are a routine now. Use of heavy force against peaceful marches has become a standard practice. It is common sense when all avenues of peaceful dissent and protest are chocked, more radical forms of resistance crop up, including religious radicalisation.

XI. Amarnath Land Controversy:

The Amarnath Land Controversy in 2008 was a watershed in the state’s history. It has created divisions which are hard to reverse. It has also given birth to a new wave of radicalisation.
Those who were against the land transfer argued that as per government figures alone, in 2008, the number of Hindu pilgrims to the Amarnath cave has been record high – 536,000 until Ist August, 2008. They also say that Kashmiri Muslims are publicly committed to host the pilgrims and facilitate the logistical needs for the same. J&K government is legally committed as ever to make available the best possible arrangements for the Yatra. At the same time Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) remains legally empowered as before by virtue of the SASB Act, 2002 to autonomously conduct the Yatra. However, exponential increase in the number of pilgrims beyond the area's carrying capacity, contamination of fresh water sources which feed 80 per cent of Kashmir's drinking water system and hijacking of the yatra by Hindu right wing elements have been serious matters of concern.

XIII. Conclusion:

From the above narrative it is clear that religious radicalization in Kashmir has local, regional and international political dimensions. The most important factor which fuels religious radicalization is the process of political disempowerment felt by the Kashmiri Muslims. Controversial acts like the 2008 Amarnath Land Transfer also fuel radical tendencies. However, as seen from the above narrative, there has been a decline in systematic and organised radicalization over the last two decades. An inclusive and syncretic Kashmir requires a political settlement of the Kashmir dispute and reversing the state policies that fuel communal divisions rather than genuine grassroots level regional and ethnic empowerment. Most importantly, what is required is an inter-regional and inter-faith dialogue.

References:

Praveen Swami, ‘The game of numbers’, FRONTLINE, Volume 17 - Issue 21, Oct. 14 - 27, 2000
Kishor Kant Dr. Balram Misra, Indraprastha Vishwa Samvad Kendra, Delhi, RE-ORGANISATION OF JAMMU & KASHMIR, PROBLEM & THE SOLUTION
Alastair Lamb, Kashmir: A Disputed Legacy
By Arvind P. Datar, J&K: legalised discrimination, The Hindu, Friday, Mar 26, 2004
R . Upadhyay Jammu & Kashmir: Is Trifurcation a Viable Solution? (http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers3%5Cpaper211.htm)
Bishan Kumar, The regional riddle, The Indian Express, Wednesday, April 14, 1999,
Editorial, ‘Jammu & Kashmir: Will delimitation exercise take place in J&K?’, Monday, October 05, 2009 (http://www.centralchronicle.com/viewnews.asp?articleID=16115)

Demystifying Kashmir's Economic Growth - I

Demystifying Kashmir's Economic Growth - I

August 19, 2009

By: Arjimand Hussain

The exchange of words between Finance Minster, Abdul Rahim Rather, and Muzaffar Hussain Baig in the Assembly on Tuesday was interesting. Both the gentlemen gave some exciting insights to and analyses of our State finances.

Surely, all statistics are generally like lamp posts: they are good to lean on, but they don’t shed much light. J&K’s finances are no exception. Its analyses and statistical conclusions are normally bizarrely divergent and contradictory.

The first thing that needs to be done is to see our finances from a purely analytical and factual point of view. Partisan view points could be misleading. Remember the ‘zero-deficit’ budgets of the PDP-Congress government? Recall Mr. Rather’s comments then.

The debate on J&K’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) and economic growth needs to go back to the basics – our official statistics. There is a systemic fault, which intrinsically develops a gap between statistical indicators and the real issues on the ground. The fact is that no figures, whether provided by Mr. Baig or Mr. Rather, are close to facts. An objective analysis proves both are partly wrong. And both are partly right.

Mr. Rather said that in 2001-02, our GSDP was Rs 180,39.35 crore on current prices. In 2007, it touched Rs 31,079 crore, marking a growth by 10.89 per cent. While at constant prices this growth was only 5.6 per cent for the same period. This in Mr. Rather’s opinion was unimpressive and happened during the PDP-Congress rule.
He went on to compare the same figures for the period of the NC rule between 1996 and 2001. According to him, the annual growth rate at current prices from 1996-97 to 2001-02 was 16.28 per cent and at constant prices for the same period was around 20.93 per cent. He also said that the Net State Domestic Product rose by 5.54 per cent per annum from 2001-02 compared to 20.74 per cent per annum from 1996-97.
In Mr. Rather’s view, Mr. Baig had wrongly compared GSDP at constant prices in 2003-04 to GSDP at current prices in 2007-08.
But how do the party performances come to play in all this?

Commonly GDP, or in our case the GSDP, is measured by what is called the ‘expenditure method’. Apart from consumption and investment, what adds up to the GSDP in the government spending and exports, minus imports.

On investment, the term ‘gross’ means that depreciation of the capital stock is not included. While as the ‘net’ SDP includes depreciation. In J&K’s system, it is highly unlikely that our official statistics are able to reflect the actual level of depreciation. Our systems are simply not tuned at all to measure depreciation across the economy. So how do we reach to ‘gross’ estimations?

Then there is the issue of our consumption and its relation to imports. Then there are our exports, the vast unregistered economic activities and the question of our purchasing parity. There are many unanswered questions.

(To be continued)

Demystifying Kashmir's Economic Growth - II

J&K’s GDP puzzle: picking the right threads

By: Arjimand Hussain

Consumption is a critical variable in the measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or GSDP. In J&K’s case consumption automatically does not mean production, given our high reliance on imports. The relation between our imports and consumption has some finer details which need attention.

It is for sure that our overall consumption is growing, which will naturally show in our GDP. However, a lot of our consumption, both imported and locally produced, is not registered. This consumption flows from all the three segments of our economy - agriculture, industry and services. This component of GDP is massive, and simply out of the statistical systems.

Then is the government expenditure, which during the PDP-Congress rule, was largely fuelled by the PM’s Reconstruction Package and the Kashmir Railway Project. It was sort of a public expenditure bubble, which is not sustainable. Sooner or later, the end of this bubble will reflect on our State’s GDP.

Another problem with our GDP measurement is that it does not take into account the black market, where the money spent is not registered. Most of J&K’s unorganised, and even some organised, economic activities are never registered. Take, for instance, our labour market. It is out of the radar.

Then there is the non-monetary economy, or the barter system, where no money comes into play at all. We don’t have any system of their measurement as well.

Another intrinsic problem with our GSDP accounting is that its growth does not over time take into account the purchasing power of money, which like in every context, varies in different proportion for different goods in J&K as well.

Although the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) system is often used in comparisons between nation-states, it would require some degee of consideration in J&K’s context as well. There is clearly a degree of difference in purchasing parity – even in the minimum wage – between J&K and rest of India. PPP would take into account the cost of living factor and make suitable adjustments.

Mr. Rather in his Assembly speech said that J&K’s per capita income rose by 3.95 per cent from 2001-02 to 2007-08 (During PDP-Congress rule) against 16.25 per cent per annum between 1996-97 to 2001-02 (during the NC rule).

Any objective analysis would say that this is highly improbable. Between 1996 and 2001 there were hardly any economic activities to warrant such a growth in per capita income. On the contrary, incidentally, there was a major public expenditure boom during 2001-2008.


However, the Finance Minister made an important point when he spoke of J&K’s Balance from Current Revenues (BCR), meaning the difference between revenue receipts and the sum total of all plan grants and non-plan revenue expenditure. That is what shows J&K’s dependence on central grants in very explicit terms.

According to official figures, our BCR in 2001-02 was minus Rs 586 crore, which has gone up to minus Rs 4476 crore in 2007-08. This is preposterous.

Let us don’t forget Simon Kuznets, the inventor of the GDP, who in his very first report to the US Congress in 1934 had cautioned, ‘the welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income [or GDP]’.

To be concluded

Demystifying Kashmir's Economic Growth - III

Higher growth needs a new vision; our times have changed

When a lot remains desired on the accuracy of the GDP, an automatic distortion in economic growth figures is a natural outcome.

The 2008-09 Economic Survey of J&K, presented in the Assembly, reveals that our income has grown around six per cent during 2008-09.

A six per cent growth in today’s low-growth times is a rarity – a virtue seen with boom countries like China and India. Looking at other indicators of our economy, like our per capita income, it again looks improbably accurate.

In theory, a growth rate of 8 per cent per annum should lead to a doubling of GDP within 9 years. J&K’s governments have been claiming 6-8 per cent growth figures for many years now. So should we foresee a doubling of our GDP in ten years or so?

One indicator which probably seems to convey one message clearly, even though still being imperfect, is our declining per capita income. In all probability, if we minus the distortion in our statistical system, our economic growth rate is not able to keep pace with our population growth. Official estimates put our current per capita income at Rs. 20,604, which is surely lower than our past incomes per person. What is alarming is that we now rank 22nd among all states in the Indian union.

The Economic Survey 2008-09 has portrayed J&K’s decline in contribution to India’s national income to 0.7 per cent from 0.85 per cent in 1999-2000 as another grey area of the PDP-Congress rule. J&K’s contribution to India’s overall income is hardly an indicator of our financial health. There are a multitude of factors that impact this percentage, mainly the relative performance of other states.

J&K’s future economic vision needs to factor in three important issues for its economic growth. There are surely many ways of interpreting this situation, but we need to contextualise things to suit our context.

Firstly, the slow growth of 1.79 per cent in agriculture will mean this activity would increasingly become a subsistence activity. There is evidence to suggest that for a vast segment of our peasantry, agriculture is now an unviable enterprise: the low land holding and low output in comparison to input costs are important factors. This situation would mean a larger number of educated populations from rural areas would mount even greater pressure on already-scarce job market.

Secondly, our current economic growth, whatever that be, puts a tremendous pressure on our natural resources, like forests, land, water, depleting them fast.

It is very much probable that ours is what some critics call this kind of growth "uneconomic growth.’’ The 2007 United Nations GEO-4 report estimates that humanity’s environmental demand is purported to be 21.9 hectares per person while the Earth’s biological capacity is purported to be 15.7 ha/person. In J&K’s case it is surely worse looking at our population stress on our scarce productive land.

Canadian scientist David Suzuki opines that ecologies can only sustain typically about 1.5-3 per cent new growth per year. This may well be logical in J&K’s case given our high reliance on natural resources and low productivity levels from our human capital and technology-based industry.

Thirdly, if we are to avert an even worse unemployment crisis, our economic planning must focus on innovation now. There is a problem with assuming that services sectors, like tourism, could use our human capital in more productive ways. That is true for only low-end jobs.

Our highly educated and skilled manpower would continue to remain in a vacuum. Investment in human capital and a strategy for its higher productivity would automatically enhance our economic output. That, in other words, would mean knowledge-driven entrepreneurship. Not necessarily the production-based entrepreneurship we are used to.

With a stagnated, or even negative, agricultural growth inputs of capital and labour will not be able to achieve a sustainably high growth for us in this fast changing world. Entrepreneurship with innovation holds the key.

Concluded